Friday Note: The Biggest Takeaway From The Trump Tariff Reversal

Trump’s midweek tariff pause sparked a huge rally, and just as quickly, a lot of those gains slipped away. That’s no surprise. Pausing tariffs doesn’t erase the cloud of uncertainty that’s been hanging over markets since February. Until that uncertainty clears, any talk of a real bottom is premature.

Still, Trump’s move carries meaningful significance. It confirmed the presence of a “Trump Put” — a clear signal that if market conditions deteriorate enough, he’s willing to back off. While this doesn’t necessarily bring the current pullback to an end, it meaningfully reduces the risk of a full-blown collapse (specifically, the S&P 500 plunging into the low 4,000s or even high 3,000s, a scenario that was becoming increasingly plausible if reciprocal tariffs had remained in force long term).

Bottom line: the tariff pause won’t fuel a lasting rally — but it pulled markets back from the edge of disaster. That’s what investors are reacting to.

And remember - The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change.

Feel free to use me as a sounding board.

Best regards,

-Kurt

Schedule a call with me by clicking HERE

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®

Fiduciary Advisor | President

Email: kurt@ivoryhill.com | ivoryhill.com