What's Different This Time?
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL™ has remained green since December 5th. Our short-term volatility signal is currently green, indicating a bias...
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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Jun 19
- 3 min
June Market Expectations Report
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL™ has been green since December 5th. Currently, our short-term volatility signal is green, while the medium-term...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- May 29
- 5 min
New Market Extremes Demand Respect
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL™ has remained green (since December 5th). Our short-term and mid-term volatility signals are green but are...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- May 7
- 7 min
May Market Expectations Report
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL™ has remained green (since December 5th). Our short-term and mid-term volatility signals have been red since...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Apr 16
- 6 min
April Market Expectations Report
Check out my appearance on the Lead-Lag Live podcast/X space, hosted by the award-winning portfolio manager Michael A. Gayed, CFA. The...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- May 3, 2023
- 6 min
Is the Debt Ceiling a Ticking Time Bomb for Stocks?
Our short-term and mid-term signals remain red while the Ivory Hill long-term RiskSIGNAL remains green. As a refresher, our short and...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Mar 30, 2023
- 6 min
Do You Really Want A Fed Pivot?
Despite all of the chaos, the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL remains firmly green. We are sitting on roughly 60% short-term treasuries and money...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Mar 17, 2023
- 4 min
Will The Fed Actually Abandon The Fight Against Inflation?
Before we dive in, I would like to address some questions I have been getting from clients lately: Question #1: I saw Charles Schwab was...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Mar 13, 2023
- 4 min
Lehman Brothers 2.0 Or Massive Overreaction?
To start, I would like to let everyone know that we had no exposer to SIVB or the banking sector in general, and we do not own any...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Jan 9, 2023
- 7 min
US Profit Recession is Here.
I would like to take a moment to look back at 2022 and, really, say thank you. I am truly grateful for the growth Ivory Hill had in 2022....
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Dec 12, 2022
- 5 min
Dear Santa, Please Fix The Stock Market
Risk is not defined by volatility, but rather ill-conceived investment. - Michael J. Burry Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Nov 27, 2022
- 5 min
Buckle Up, Volatility Is Coming
Everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down. - Peter Lynch The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red, and we...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Oct 30, 2022
- 4 min
Caution Advised! This Face-Ripper Rally Is Temporary
Missing the bottom on the way up won't cost you anything. It's missing the top on the way down that's always expensive. - Peter Lynch The...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Oct 7, 2022
- 5 min
Dear Fed: The Chickens Are Finally Coming Home To Roost Part II
This week, the market had a strong rebound at the beginning of the week, raising hopes that the bear market is nearing its end. The Ivory...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Oct 2, 2022
- 7 min
This Bear Market is Just Getting Started
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red (since January) and we are still sitting on roughly 85% cash. Since we moved to 60%-70% cash in...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Sep 26, 2022
- 6 min
Oversold Markets Can Turn Into Market Crashes
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red (since January) and we are sitting on roughly 80%-85% cash. We got stopped out of a few positions...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Sep 16, 2022
- 12 min
Fear Forms Bottoms
It would be silly to expect every bear market to turn into the Great Depression. It would be equally wrong to expect that a fall from...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Aug 26, 2022
- 6 min
US Dollar is Signaling a Sovereign Debt Crisis
Central bankers always try to avoid their last big mistake. So every time there's the threat of a contraction in the economy, they'll...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Aug 15, 2022
- 8 min
The Bear Market Phase II
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. -Benjamin Graham Our short-term signals...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
- Aug 12, 2022
- 3 min
The Relationship Between Falling Inflation and Slowing Growth: August Market Expectations Table
I wanted to wait until after the CPI report to provide an update to the Market Expectations Table (MET) as it gave us needed context for...
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