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Dear Santa, Please Fix The Stock Market
Risk is not defined by volatility, but rather ill-conceived investment. - Michael J. Burry Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Dec 12, 20225 min read


Buckle Up, Volatility Is Coming
Everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down. - Peter Lynch The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red, and we...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Nov 27, 20225 min read


Caution Advised! This Face-Ripper Rally Is Temporary
Missing the bottom on the way up won't cost you anything. It's missing the top on the way down that's always expensive. - Peter Lynch The...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Oct 29, 20224 min read


Dear Fed: The Chickens Are Finally Coming Home To Roost Part II
This week, the market had a strong rebound at the beginning of the week, raising hopes that the bear market is nearing its end. The Ivory...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Oct 6, 20225 min read


This Bear Market is Just Getting Started
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red (since January) and we are still sitting on roughly 85% cash. Since we moved to 60%-70% cash in...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Oct 1, 20227 min read


Oversold Markets Can Turn Into Market Crashes
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red (since January) and we are sitting on roughly 80%-85% cash. We got stopped out of a few positions...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Sep 25, 20226 min read


Fear Forms Bottoms
It would be silly to expect every bear market to turn into the Great Depression. It would be equally wrong to expect that a fall from...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Sep 15, 202212 min read


US Dollar is Signaling a Sovereign Debt Crisis
Central bankers always try to avoid their last big mistake. So every time there's the threat of a contraction in the economy, they'll...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Aug 26, 20226 min read


The Bear Market Phase II
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. -Benjamin Graham Our short-term signals...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Aug 15, 20228 min read


The Relationship Between Falling Inflation and Slowing Growth: August Market Expectations Table
I wanted to wait until after the CPI report to provide an update to the Market Expectations Table (MET) as it gave us needed context for...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Aug 12, 20223 min read


Do Bear Market Rallies Turn Into Long-Term Bull Markets?
Last week, the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL flipped green on a short-term basis, but NOT the intermediate-term or long-term trend, which is...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Aug 8, 20229 min read


The Bond Market Is Calling For A Recession
The market has now exited its short-term trading range and the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red, and we are sitting on 60% cash and we...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 28, 20227 min read


Is it Time to Rotate Back Into Growth Stocks?
Is the Value outperformance ending? That may seem like a strange question, as value, represented by the Vanguard Value ETF (Ticker: VTV)...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 18, 20224 min read


Three Keys To A Stock Market Bottom
“It would be silly to expect every bear market to turn into the Great Depression. It would be equally wrong to expect that a fall from...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 17, 20227 min read


The S&P 500 is Overvalued
The takeaway from the July update to the Market Expectations Table is clear: The S&P 500 is overvalued by 5%-10%. Current Situation 2023...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 10, 20223 min read


Q2 2022 Market Update and Q3 2022 Market Outlook - By Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
The S&P 500 continued to decline in the second quarter, hitting the lowest level since December 2020 as still-high inflation, sharp...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 1, 20228 min read


The Cash Buildup Continues As Bear Market Rallies Give Hope
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still clearly red, and we have built up an excellent amount of cash. As of today, we are sitting on roughly...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 23, 20224 min read


Is the Stock Market Running the Fed?
Opportunity always exists when the crowd thinks it knows an unknowable future The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is firmly red, and we are still...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 13, 20225 min read


Market Expectations Table: June Update
The June Market Expectations Table substantially indicates that the stock market's comeback from the May 20 lows has been fueled by real...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 6, 20224 min read


Stocks Break 7-Week Losing Streak. Is the bottom in?
No man has a chance to enjoy permanent success until he begins to look in a mirror for the real cause of his mistakes - Napoleon Hill The...

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 4, 20225 min read
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