The Bear Market Phase II
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. -Benjamin Graham Our short-term signals...
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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Aug 12, 20223 min
The Relationship Between Falling Inflation and Slowing Growth: August Market Expectations Table
I wanted to wait until after the CPI report to provide an update to the Market Expectations Table (MET) as it gave us needed context for...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Aug 8, 20229 min
Do Bear Market Rallies Turn Into Long-Term Bull Markets?
Last week, the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL flipped green on a short-term basis, but NOT the intermediate-term or long-term trend, which is...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 29, 20227 min
The Bond Market Is Calling For A Recession
The market has now exited its short-term trading range and the Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still red, and we are sitting on 60% cash and we...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 19, 20224 min
Is it Time to Rotate Back Into Growth Stocks?
Is the Value outperformance ending? That may seem like a strange question, as value, represented by the Vanguard Value ETF (Ticker: VTV)...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 18, 20227 min
Three Keys To A Stock Market Bottom
“It would be silly to expect every bear market to turn into the Great Depression. It would be equally wrong to expect that a fall from...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 11, 20223 min
The S&P 500 is Overvalued
The takeaway from the July update to the Market Expectations Table is clear: The S&P 500 is overvalued by 5%-10%. Current Situation 2023...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jul 2, 20228 min
Q2 2022 Market Update and Q3 2022 Market Outlook - By Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
The S&P 500 continued to decline in the second quarter, hitting the lowest level since December 2020 as still-high inflation, sharp...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 24, 20224 min
The Cash Buildup Continues As Bear Market Rallies Give Hope
The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is still clearly red, and we have built up an excellent amount of cash. As of today, we are sitting on roughly...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 14, 20225 min
Is the Stock Market Running the Fed?
Opportunity always exists when the crowd thinks it knows an unknowable future The Ivory Hill RiskSIGNAL is firmly red, and we are still...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 7, 20224 min
Market Expectations Table: June Update
The June Market Expectations Table substantially indicates that the stock market's comeback from the May 20 lows has been fueled by real...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Jun 5, 20225 min
Stocks Break 7-Week Losing Streak. Is the bottom in?
No man has a chance to enjoy permanent success until he begins to look in a mirror for the real cause of his mistakes - Napoleon Hill The...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
May 23, 20222 min
Beware of FOMO and Bear Traps!
Bear Markets don’t happen the day that you need them to; you have to execute inside these OODA Loops. -Keith McCullough The markets are...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
May 20, 20225 min
Bonds Are Back And The Selloff May Just Be Getting Started
You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready. You won't do...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
May 14, 20224 min
The 100 Year Old Dow Theory Turned Bearish
“There is always a disposition in people’s minds to think the existing conditions will be permanent. When the market is down and dull, it...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
May 9, 20224 min
May Market Expectations Why Stocks Dropped Again
With yesterday's drop, the S&P 500 is now down almost 10% in a week, and the pain from these losses is real and strong. The constant...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
May 5, 20225 min
The Fed’s Bark Might Be Worse than Its Bite - Optimism Remains for the Second Half of 2022
Ancient Chinese mythology relates the charming tale of the flexible bamboo and the defiant oak. During the Monsoon season strong winds...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Apr 18, 20224 min
A Story to Explain My Concerns About The Market
Market conditions are changing faster than they ever have in history. All of our Risk-LINE signals flipped red last week. This is the...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Apr 15, 20227 min
The Bond Market Crash Is Coming To An End
The fundamental factors are slow-moving. They are so important that they practically rule the eventual trend of stock prices but, because...
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
Apr 7, 20223 min
Bonds Are Getting Killed, Conditions Have Changed
The farmers say ... “What does Wall Street know about farming?” Wall Street knows more than all the farmers put together ever knew, with...
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